Certainty of uncertainty in evacuation for threat driven response : principles of adaptive evacuation management for flood risk planning in the Netherlands
Evacuation is a measure taken to potentially reduce the loss of life and damage to movable goods. This thesis focuses on the Netherlands as a representative urbanized delta and flood risk management. The central element of this thesis is uncertainty. Evacuation has benefits but can be costly. Therefore, the decision to call for an evacuation due to the threat of flooding results in a crisis, by definition, but can prevent a worse crisis in the case of an actual flood. This thesis focuses on effectiveness of different types of evacuation and how to address uncertainties. The effectiveness of different types of evacuation as preventive evacuation and vertical evacuation is defined, in response to large-scale flooding. It is shown that Evacuation is part of a portfolio of measures in an optimal investment strategy in a multilateral safety system in addition to the most important measure prevention. Preparation for an evacuation entails meeting predefined criteria that are related to desired effectiveness of evacuation. It is concluded that evacuation in case of the threat of flooding requires an uncomplicated approach and centralisation . This is because of the complexity of preparation for low-frequency, large-scale disasters as flooding and the limited risk perception by the public, decision makers and the number of them which are involved. Centralisation, however, works in opposition to the daily practice of the organisations involved in evacuation planning because each of these organisations aims to optimise its own role and objectives, focus on preventive evacuation and best case scenarios. This research developed a method to define the optimal moment to call for an evacuation in case of a threat. It is also shown that vertical evacuation or shelter in place is a better basic strategy for coping with a flood than preventive evacuation when the available time is limited
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